Great Economic Downturn Around Fall 2016
Prediction Made: 2014-12-07 Year Predicted: 2016
Bashar predicted a 75-80% probability of an abrupt economic change or 'great economic downturn' around fall 2016, followed by a complete revamping of the taxation system and broader economic restructuring toward 2020.
Probability
The transcript gives about 75-80% for the abrupt economic change beginning around fall 2016, and later 87-95% for the broader economic shift toward 2020.
Evidence
Failed for the central claim. The United States did not enter a recession or a great economic downturn in fall 2016; NBER business-cycle dates show the expansion continued until the February 2020 peak. A major U.S. tax law passed in 2017, but it did not follow a fall-2016 downturn and did not amount to the described complete systemic reset by 2020.
Sources
- Bashar Archive - Dec7Predictions Qa 2014-12-07 · Third-party
- NBER - US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions 2023-02-01 · Third-party
Disclaimer — Bashar emphasizes that all predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Reality creation and parallel timelines mean individual and collective choices continuously shift outcomes. The 'accuracy' of any prediction must be understood within this framework.